If you want to predict the future with some relative accuracy, do not predict based upon patterns of events: that’s just dumb. If you want to make bank in the prediction game, just predict somebody who has done something multiple times will do it again. Know a guy with 5 DUI’s who still drinks at bars1? Go ahead, predict that 6th. It’s even better if there is a time limit - your friend who routinely blows up her relationships in month three, the one with the brand new boyfriend? Start laying heavy money on the inevitable starting at week 11. You know, stuff like that.
I once accurately predicted the future. I wish I hadn’t as what I predicted implied a long, depressing next decade or three, but it was obvious from early on what was happening, so I made the call very, very early.
And was, unfortunately, correct.
On November 9th, 2020, just six days after Joe Biden won the election, I started a discussion at The Straight Dope Message Board (discussion linked below) , stating that based upon events *that day*, the time limit imposed by the US Constitution, and the nature of the man who lost the election, I predicted disgraced Ex-President Trump would launch a coup against the United States of America.
And he did:
The discussion is over 3,300 messages long as I and 200+ others tracked the events leading to January 6th, with me being so confident that the Capitol would be attacked by MAGAts that I took off work January 6th so I could watch the impending insurrection coverage.
Needless to say, I was not disappointed.
The discussion is closed now by my request (I’m “JohnT” in the link which follows): I wanted the thread to remain the phenomenal artifact, archive, and timeline of events it is. Reading it now one is struck by how obvious the developing coup was, even early on, with every step taken by Trump and his lackeys making what was obvious on November 9th even more obvious as we approached January 6th.
Enjoy the discussion. You may wish to bookmark it, as you will no way read it in a single sitting.
And for an interesting analysis of historical American drinking habits, I cannot recommend this Kate Julian The Atlantic article highly enough: